NIELSEN: NONCOMMERCIAL STATIONS IN THE TOP 10 MARKETS APPEAR TO BE LOSING WEEKLY LISTENERS

A review of 36 noncommercial stations in the Top Ten Nielsen Audio markets shows a 13.3% drop in estimated listeners when comparing January 2020 PPM ratings with numbers from January 2017.

We looked at PPM data from 15 NPR News, 6 Classical music stations stations, 5 AAA & Alternative Rock stations, 4 Jazz stations  and 5 Contemporary Christian Music (CCM) stations. 

When comparing the ratings, Nielsen says there are 1.4 million fewer weekly listeners now than there were in January 2017.

Stations in every format had fewer weekly listeners in January 2020:

• NPR News stations had 15.1% fewer estimated weekly listeners in January 2020 than January 2017

• Classical music stations had 12.6% fewer weekly listeners in January 2020

• Jazz music stations had 12% fewer weekly listeners in January 2020

• AAA and Alternative Rock music stations had 12% fewer weekly listeners in January 2020

• CCM music stations had 5.4% fewer weekly listeners in January 2020

Only 5 of the stations 36 (14%) had more listeners in January 2020 then they had in January 2017.

WHYY was up 22%, KDFC was up 8%,WFUV was up 11% and two CCM stations in Houston were up 28% and 10%.

We were particularly interested in comparing estimates for NPR News stations. 

We asked for  feedback from several people who know the industry well:

Abby Goldstein, President and Executive Director of the Public Radio Program Directors association (PRPD) had these cautions about reading too much into what our comparison showed:

“It is important to frame this analysis by what was happening in January 2017. It was 2 months after the most contentious election in modern time. Trump was inaugurated in January 2017 and the first women’s march happened the next day.”

Abby Goldstein

“We were in the middle of the “Trump bump” in January of 2017, one of the biggest ratings anomalies in recent history.”

“Perhaps its worth looking back at 2015, do a 5 year analysis instead of choosing the one period in time where ratings may have been highly inflated by specific circumstances.”

Tom Thomas, co-Executive Director for the Station Resource Group (SRG) said we should keep things in context.

Tom Thomas

“You need to be very careful with this reporting, obviously. It is perilous to draw conclusions from single months. But the broad trend you have charted is what we have seen when looking through a wider lens: a decline in both broadcast reach (cume) and use (AQH).”

“Have you looked at what happened with these stations in January 2018 and January 2019? That is, do you see a consistent, linear pattern, or a bumpy road?”

Fred Jacobs added:  I think that when you look at Nielsen data, you’re seeing an almost pure terrestrial radio way of looking at consumption.  But we know from both the metrics as well as anecdotally, many members of the public radio audience access these stations on whatever medium or gadget available to them.

Fred Jacobs

If there’s no radio at work, they’ll stream on a computer, on an app on their phone, or on a smart speaker – whatever’s accessible, convenient, and within their capabilities.  Some people listen to Terry Gross in real time, others access the NPR website later in the day to hear “Fresh Air,” while some go for the podcast.

I remember encountering a young person in our “Millennial Project” (PRPD sponsored a few years ago).  She told us she’s been a core listener to “This American Life” for more than a decade.  Yet, she had no idea which local station carried it or when it was on.  She subscribed to the podcast.

The measurement system of capturing all this usage isn’t necessarily flawed, but it is chopped up over so many different measures and spreadsheets, it’s impossible for you, me, a media buyer, or (more importantly) a Chief Content Officer to determine “how we’re doing.”

I do know this: Every year in the Public Radio Techsurvey, we see “traditional listening” decrease, while digital consumption of public radio continues to rise.  Yes, these are fans of these stations, but that’s the point.  They contribute the lion’s share of consumption, albeit it on different platforms.  

And that is tracking over time. 

And even though our sample frame is different (dependent on which stations in the system opt in), the numbers trend beautifully, suggesting the shift to digital consumption of public radio is not a myth – it’s real.

We also looked at Average Quarter Hour (AQH) shares for the 15 NPR News stations. Our narrative has been that even though cume is falling, NPR News stations are getting larger AQH shares.

This is only partially true. 

Over half of the 15 NPR News stations were also down in AQH shares when comparing data from January 2020 with January 2017.

We appreciate these thoughts from industry leaders. 

In the future, we will implement many of the changes that have been suggestions. 

Plus, we welcome your feedback at publicradio@hotmail.com.

Though only one of the six Classical music stations had more listeners in January 2020 than in January 2017, the format remains stable.

You probably have heard that Bill Lueth at KDFC has a “secret sauce” that draws listeners. Now we hope he can share it.

None of the Jazz music stations had more weekly listeners in January 2020 than in January 2017. 

We know these are turbulent times for people at WBGO.

WRTI has a dual format. They air Classical and Jazz music in different day-parts.

WXPN was the only AAA/Alt Rock station that had more weekly listeners in January 2020 than in January 2017.

We have had people ask us why Spark News publishes ratings data for Christian music stations. 

It is true that not many of our readers care about CCM radio. 

But we feel these stations are an important part of noncommercial radio.

Many of these stations have sophisticated programming that mirrors techniques public radio has used for years.

Keep in mind that the station that had the largest increase in weekly listeners is KXNG, in Houston. 

N-GEN is a Christian music station that specializes in “Godly” hard rock and rap artists, proving that “Christian Rock is not an oxymoron.