I recommend a recent post by Paul Marszalek on his blog TheTop22.com. He asks this question: Is Podcasting Currently in a Bubble and Will it Burst? [link to article].
Marszalek is a big-picture strategist. He sees trends and looks beyond the hype of the moment. Paul co-founded Media Mechanics with partners Mike Henry and Ben Manilla – folks who intuitively know noncom media and it’s role in our lives. He asks important questions about the go-go Podcast biz:
With so much buzz and so much money being thrown around, the podcasting space is starting to feel a little like a tech bubble. How big can it get? Will it burst and when?
With so much good stuff – This American Life, WTF, Invisibilia, Radiolab, 99% Invisible, Freakonomics, Planet Money, The Moth, Startup, and The Nerdist — just to name 10, how much can we consume – especially when almost all are long-form?
SHARE OF EAR PUTS ALL AUDIO MEDIA INTO PERSPECTIVE
How do you divide your media day? I tend to focus on what matters in the moment. Whenever I add a new media source/platform there is less time available for other stuff on my media menu. There are only 24 hours each day.
Last November we reported on an Edison Research study called SHARE OF EAR [link] The report provides the first consistent measurement of all audio consumption, including AM/FM radio stations, online radio stations, podcasts and even listeners’ own music collections.
SHARE OF EAR is important because it shows how numerous audio platforms compete with each other for the listener’s “shelf space.” Edison’s SHARE OF EAR results are from a nationally representative sample of 2,096 Americans ages 13+ who completed a 24-hour audio listening diary during May 2014.
The study reveals that Americans spend an average of 4 hours and 5 minutes each day consuming audio. This chart shows the top-line results of the study:
LISTENING TO AUDIO BOOKS CONTINUES TO GROW
According to a recent study from Edison Research [link], more than 40% of Americans ages 18 and older have ever listened to an audiobook, and in the last year fully 22% of Americans have enjoyed one (approximately 55 million persons). The research was unveiled in late May at an Audio Publishers Association event in New York [link].
Everyone seems to be scrambling to get a piece of The Golden Age of Audio.
THERE WILL BE CASUALTIES…
Paul Marszalek observes:
The hit podcast Serial, a spinoff of This American Life has focused so much attention on the medium that [big] money is now entering the space, aggregators are cherry-picking the top indie podcasts…
It seems that [podcasting] is indeed having its moment right now – thanks largely to the high-end, expensive journalism, production values, and core values of public radio. Right now we’re listening to the best of the best. Will we have any time for the best of the rest?
In June, the New York Times [link] reported:
TRANSLATION: Podcasts aren’t for bulk audience delivery. They require a listener to have the time available and a deep interest in the program.
Marszalek has this caution for public media folks:
In television, we simultaneously develop tens of shows in hopes of finding a single hit. There are occasional exceptions. In radio, especially public radio, it tends to be more of a “all our eggs in one basket” approach, with very few programs in development and stakes riding high on the few that are. That’s a monster red flag – an approach that will not work in the current podcasting environment.