COMMERCIAL MEDIA NEWSROOMS LAY OFF JOURNALISTS • FEWER CARS ON THE ROAD IMPACTS RADIO LISTENING

Cartoon by Daryl Cagle

According to a story by reporters Sara Fischer and Margaret Harding McGill that was posted on AXIOS [link] last Sunday (3-21); dozens of local newsrooms are laying-off journalists because COVID-19 has severely impacting their ad revenue.

At a time when Americans need more local news and information, commercial media outlets, particularly newspapers, are seeing ad revenue decline due to closed businesses and social distancing. 

There are fears that current COVID-19 developments will lead to a recession. These fears adds  are adding to business uncertainty.

Ironically, many local news organizations are seeing record amounts of traffic to their website and social media pages.

The AXIOS report mainly focuses on the plight of newspapers, but it discusses similar cuts by small broadcasters. AXIOS cites Neuhoff Communications as an example of cutbacks in news people by commercial radio companies.

Neuhoff [link] owns stations in markets such as Bloomington and Springfield, Illinois. The company’s CEO, Beth Neuhoff, told AXIOS:

"Economically, this is devastating. We are modeling daily on how to keep people when we have no money coming in the door.”

Corey Elliott, VP of Research at Borrell Associates, a company tracking local advertising trends, says local advertising revenue might be down 25% during 2020.

The AXIOS report did not discuss news coverage by public media organizations.

KEN SAYS: We feel the report by Fisher and Harding McGill, published by AXIOS, lacks credibility in two important ways. 

First, it is hard to believe that anyone doing a report on local news can omit the local coverage provided by NPR News stations. 

While commercial company newsrooms have been cutting back, public radio stations have been hiring more journalists.

Second, the use of Neuhoff Communications, a chain of small market commercial stations in the Midwest, is not representative of all radio local news coverage.

FRED JACOBS: FEWER CARS ON THE ROAD MAY SIGNAL A DECREASE IN RADIO LISTENING        

On Monday (3-24) blogger/consultant/researcher Fred Jacobs provided a very useful comparison between results of Infinite Dial 2020 and the forthcoming Jacobs Media Techsurvey 2020 [TS 2020].

Just a reminder, the results of TS 2020 will be presented this coming Thursday (3-27) at 2:00pm ET in free webinar hosted by Jacobs. 

You can register to attend the webinar here.

Before the arrival of COVID-19, Jacobs was scheduled to present the results of the TS 2020 at All Access Media’s Worldwide Radio Summit. 

Because that conference was canceled, Jacobs is holding the webinar to inform commercial clients about the findings. 

Public media folks are also welcome and we recommend their participation.

The findings in TS 2020 reflect the media consumption and perceptions of over 46,000 listeners to 500+ commercial stations. In the past, Techsurvey results are similar to Jacobs’ Public Radio Tech Survey (PRTS).  PRTS will be conducted later in 2020.

In his blog post [link], Jacobs points out that both surveys were conducted in January 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically changed American lifestyles. The methodology and sample used  the two surveys is very different.

Infinite Dial 2020 [link], conducted by Edison Research and Triton Digital, is based on a representative sample of Americans, sort of like the Gallup Poll.  TS 2020 draws from a survey of radio listeners – people who have the habit of listening to radio and related social media platforms.

Jacobs focuses on the importance of in-vehicle radio listening in the COVID-19 environment. He describes the situation this way:

“If you're living in or near a major city, workplaces are empty, traffic is light, gathering spots are vacant, and schools and most businesses – outside of the essentials – are closed.” 

“With people spending considerably less time commuting to work or school, radio listening is going to go down.”

“We know this instinctively, but we can see the hard numbers in Techsurvey – for core radio listeners, the car and workplace are radio's bread and butter.”

For commercial broadcasters, the disruption caused by reactions to the COVID-19 crisis, mean less advertising revenue. For public radio broadcasters, it means less visibility for NPR and local news content.

Jacobs reminds his readers that his assumptions are based on past research and a hunch about human behavior. The first hard evidence about the impact of COVID-19 on radio listening will be the release of March Nielsen Audio PPM ratings, scheduled for release on April 15, 2020. The March survey period will reflect listening from February 28 and March 27.

In a related story, a new report from J.D. Power says COVID-19 could result in vehicle sales falling by up to 3 million during the remainder of 2020.

KEN SAYS: If radio listening does fall because people aren’t in their vehicles, public radio must count on increased use of its mobile and social media platforms. This is important because decreased listening may signal the perception of less value.

Also, if we don’t say it enough, we appreciate the daily posts from  Fred Jacobs and Seth Resler. Like us, they publish every workday. During times like these we need to be connected to our peers and reminded of the purpose of our work.