This is a revised
version of a post that originally appeared Monday, July 6, 2015
I recommend a post
by Paul Marszalek on his blog TheTop22.com [link]. In the article, Paul asks a great
question: Is Podcasting
in a Bubble and Will it Burst?
Is Podcasting in a
bubble and when will it burst?
Marszalek is a
big-picture strategist. He sees trends
and looks beyond the hype of the moment. Paul co-founded a smart company –
Media Mechanics - with partners Mike Henry and Ben Manilla. These are folks who
intuitively know media and it’s role in our lives. He has seen lots of fads
come and go.
With so much buzz
and so much money being thrown around, the podcasting space is starting to feel
a little like a tech bubble. How big can it get? Will it burst and when?
With so much good stuff – Serial, This American Life, WTF, Invisibilia, Radiolab, 99% Invisible, Freakonomics, Planet Money, The Moth and The Nerdist — just to name a few long-form podcasts. How much can we, folks with only 24 hours a day, consume this much audio.
With so much good stuff – Serial, This American Life, WTF, Invisibilia, Radiolab, 99% Invisible, Freakonomics, Planet Money, The Moth and The Nerdist — just to name a few long-form podcasts. How much can we, folks with only 24 hours a day, consume this much audio.
SHARE OF EAR PUTS ALL AUDIO MEDIA INTO
PERSPECTIVE
How do you divide
your media day? I tend to focus on what
matters in the moment. Whenever I add a new media source/platform there is less
time available for other stuff on my media menu. There are only 24 hours each
day.
In November 2014 we
reported on an Edison Research study called SHARE
OF EAR [link].
SHARE OF EAR provides measurement of
all audio consumption, including AM/FM radio stations, online radio stations,
podcasts and even listeners’ own music collections.
SHARE OF EAR is important because it shows how audio
platforms compete with each other for the listener’s “shelf space.” The study
is based on a nationally representative sample of 2,096 Americans ages 13+ who
completed a 24-hour audio listening diary during May 2014.
It reveals that
Americans spend an average of 4 hours and 5 minutes each day consuming audio.
This chart shows the top-line results of the study:
LISTENING TO AUDIO BOOKS CONTINUES TO GROW
According to another
study from Edison Research [link],
more than 40% of Americans ages 18 and older have ever listened to an
audiobook, and in the last year fully 22% of Americans have enjoyed one
(approximately 55 million persons). The research was unveiled in late May at an
Audio Publishers Association event in New York [link].
In addition, the
research shows that audiobooks are being consumed among younger adults in
surprising numbers, aided by the digital device revolution. After all, says
Edison VP Tom Webster, what’s the difference between an audiobook and a long
podcast? Our research shows audiobooks are part of the same renaissance in
audio consumption.”
Everyone seems to be scrambling to get a piece of The New Golden Age of Audio.
Everyone seems to be scrambling to get a piece of The New Golden Age of Audio.
THERE WILL BE CASUALTIES…
Given this context,
Marszalek observes:
The hit podcast Serial, a
spinoff of This American Life has focused so much attention on the medium that
[big] money is now entering the space, aggregators are cherry-picking the top
indie podcasts…
It seems that [podcasting] is
indeed having its moment right now – thanks largely to the high-end, expensive
journalism, production values, and core values of public radio. Right now we’re
listening to the best of the best. Will we have any time for the best of the
rest?
In June 2015, the New
York Times [link]
reported:
The largest podcasting operations
are attracting sizable audiences and advertising revenue. The ads work. Large
and small advertisers report a significant upside to the campaigns they run on
podcasts, and ad rates on top-tier podcasts approach $100 per thousand
listeners, which is many times what it costs advertisers to reach audiences in
most other digital formats.
TRANSLATION: Most podcasts are not reaching
many people. Often you can count the number of listeners on your fingers.
FACT: Podcasts are
not bulk audience delivery. They require a listener to have the time available
and a deep interest in the program.
Marszalek adds an
important caution for public media folks:
In television, we simultaneously develop tens of shows in hopes of finding a single hit. There are occasional exceptions. In radio, especially public radio, it tends to be more of a “all our eggs in one basket” approach, with very few programs in development and stakes riding high on the few that are. That’s a monster red flag – an approach that will not work in the current podcasting environment.
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